Thursday, February 16, 2006

Red Sox 2006 Part Four

Part Four of my look at the Red Sox offseason

Bullpen: Keith Foulke, Mike Timlin, Rudy Seanez, Julian Tavarez, Jonathan Papelbon, David Riske, Craig Hansen. This bullpen scares me as there are alot of questions about health and ability so let's get started.

Keith Foulke was hurt for the entire season. He had surgery on both of his knees and was ineffective when he pitched. His numbers last season were 5-5 with 12 saves and an ERA of 5.91 a strikeout to walk ratio of 34:18. Foulke refused to have surgery on his knees in the 2004 offseason and brought the injuries into the season. What made the situation even worse was Foulke calling into WEEI and complaining about the Red Sox, their fans and Boston. He was upset that after helping them the World Series that the fans could turn on him so quickly. Foulke down the stretch in 2004 was like a piece of tough leather and nothing could take him off of his game. I just don't know if Foulke can get back to that point. I bet that if he can it won't be in Boston.

Mike Timlin: had the best season of his 14 year career last season. He went 7-3 with 13 saves with an ERA of 2.24 in 80 innings. He allowed only two home runs. Timlin was especially dominate early in the season before taking over Foulke's spot as the closer. Timlin had problems with inherited runners last year. Timlin is turning forty this season and is pitching in the first WBC so he may have to lessen his role during the regular season. Timlin has been a workhorse since coming to Boston three years ago and has appeared in at 72 games each of those seasons. Timlin seemed to tire down the stretch last season his ERA jumped from 0.71 in july to 3.94 in August and 3.75 in October.

Rudy Seanez: Looks to continue his career resurgance during his second trip through Boston. Seanez is coming off of a great season in which he went 7-1 with an ERA 2.69 and a great K/BB ratio of 84:22. A truely excellent season. But how likely is Seanez to repeat last season at the age of 38. The strikeouts where the highest total of career and he pitched a career high of 60.1 innings pitched. On top of that he spent last season in the NL's best pitchers park Petco in the DHless league. I expect his numbers to rise to at at least an ERA in the 4.00's and his strikeouts to come back down to earth.

Julian Tavarez: At least he's not old. Just 32 Tavarez comes to the Sox after two successful seasons pitching for the Cardinals. He went 2-3 with 4 saves and an ERa of 3.43. Tavarez has had some maturity problems famously breaking his hand by punching a wall shortly before the 2004 playoffs started. One thing to be afraid of is his home ERA at Busch Stadium was 2.48 opposed to 4.72 on the road. Don't know if he has the temperment to handle Boston.

Jonathan Papelbon: Last year's savior done the stretch Papelbon is the most promising pitcher the Red Sox farm system has produced in years. He went 3-1 with ERA of 2.65 with a K/BB ratio of 34:17. Thrown into the heat of pennent race Papelbon thrived. The Sox invision him as a starter in the future, but due to an abudance of starting pitchers he may find himself starting the season in the bullpen. Within the nest two year's Papelbon along with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester will give the Red Sox a formidble power rotation.

David Riske: His numbers from last season look fantastic 3-4 with an ERA of 3.10 with a K/BB ratio of 48:15. So that's good. But here are the facts. His manager last season, Eric Wedge of Cleveland, was so fed up Riske that he refused to pitch him down the stretch or in any situation with some pressure in it. He pitched a combined 8 2/3rd innings in September and October. If you can't handle the pressure from pitching in Cleveland maybe Boston isn't the best place for you. He also had problems pitching away from Jacobs Field putting up an ERA of 1.50 at home opposed to an ERA of 4.66 on the road.

Craig Hansen: The silver lining of the Red sox bullpen. The Red Sox second pick in the first round last season was rumored to be in the running to be the number one pick but fears of his agent Scott Boras dropped down to the Red Sox spot. And the Red Sox were only too happy to take him. A closer for St. Johns Hansen pitched only 13 innings in the minors before moving up to the big leagues. He is the Red Sox closer of the future and if things don't work out this season he very well could be the closer by the end of the season.

The Red Sox Front Office was in my opinion was the single most important thing the Red Sox had to deal with this offseason. And in a round about the settled it well. Theo's back. Larry's still here. And John Henry is still the owner. What's important is that in the Theo-Larry power struggle Theo won. He will be the one calling the shots for the Red Sox baseball operations side of the front office. If Larry had won Jim Beattie would be the Red Sox current GM. But John Henry stepped in and said no. Eventually Theo returned and we'll see how this works this offseason. Most likely once the Washington ownership situation is figured out Larry will head their and do what he does best: getting stadiums built. Don't get me wrong Theo does make mistakes. Some of the trades he's made or hasn't made either didn't work out or wouldn't have. But he's an intelligent guy that looks at the statiscal side of baseball and understands it. Players, fans and front office people all seem to like and he is the living GM to ever bring a World Series Championship to Boston. and how many other baseball GMs can say they hang out with Pearl Jam?

The Red Sox still have too many starters (a good thing) and too few relief pitchers (a bad thing). There offense should still be good and their defense should be improved. If Lowell and Gonzalez can hit at all and Crisp can handle center field the offense and defense should be fine. If Schilling and Foulke can make any reasonable comebacks their pitching should be OK as well.

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