Just Taking a Look Around

It's a month into the season so I decided to take a look around the NL to see what's going on. Checking what's going with I what I figured would be going on has shown me that I'm pretty much a moron. Let's start with the NL East.

NL East
-------
Atlanta Braves: The Braves have not looked good so far this season despite winning today's game. I think the Braves, especially their pitchers, discounted just how much they'd miss Leo Mazzone. All the comments from Braves pitchers were about how they bristled under Mazzone's leadership. This year their collective ERA is 4.48 the worst it's been after a month in the past ten years. It's quickly proving to everyone that Chris Reitsma isn't the answer as the Braves closer with an ERA of 4.97. John Thomson has been great for the Braves sporting an ERA of 2.16 and averaging 7 strikeouts per game. Tim Hudson is proving Billy Beane right for trading him at just the right time. His ERA is 5.09 and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 23:15. The Braves were expecting to trade for an ace and that's not what they've gotten. On the offensive side Marcus Giles and Jeff Francoeur have been dismal. Giles is going to rebound. He's not going to hit .220 for the entire year. His OBP will be high enough that he'll score a truck load of runs. Francoeur, on the other hand, just hasn't developed the plate discipline to be consistent at the major league level. He's always going to be a streaky guy. A positive for the Braves has been Edgar Renteria who is playing much better then he ever did in Boston. There was no anyone could have foreseen this. His line this year is .355/.412/.484. His line last year was .276/.335/.385. But here's the thing last year's line was closer to his career norm then this year's line. His career line is .289/.346/.400. So good for the Braves. Andruw Jones is proving last year wasn't a fluke hitting .283/.354/.575 with nine home runs and 30 RBI. He's a free agent after next year and he'll be just 30 when he's hits the market. Somebody will give him a huge contract and regret it within three years. He's currently day-to-day with a sore back and for the Braves but to improve their on 13-18 record the they're going to need him back as soon as possible.

Florida Marlins: At 8-21 Marlins fans are in for a long year. But it's better then it sounds. What they have to remember is that in this fire sale the Marlins got a lot of talent in return. It just has to develop. In three years the Marlins will better then they were when they won the World Series in 2003 and 1997. That is if the Marlins can hang onto the Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera. These are their core guys that Marlins have to build around. Cabrera is young Manny Ramirez in the waiting. He has that much talent. This year he's hitting .340/.463/.580 and he's only 23. Willis could be more of a problem because he's going to soon be arbitration eligible and earning more money then the Marlins can afford. Willis should want to leave. His ERA this season is the highest it's ever been at 5.15. He's not going to win many games pitching for this team and everyone knows it. Willis is the rare player that can be the face of your years to come. The Marlins are faced with turning down a boatload of good cheap prospects and holding onto a pitcher they say they can't afford. But the problem is that Willis and Cabrera, if the team wants to move to another city, are the two marketable players they have. If they get rid of them what attraction will bring the fans in a new city. Hanley Ramirez appears to be the real deal so far putting up a line of .307/.388/.482. He never hit this well in the minors and if he isn't motivated he may not perform. Losing in the majors will probably not motivate him for much longer and he could be distracted and suffer a steep decline. Josh Willingham has been tagging the ball lately but he's not going to continue to hit to the tune of .310/.403/.620. Their pitching is in disarray and will be for awhile but importing all those arms in their deals this past offseason is going to payoff big time in the future. It's going to take a couple of year's but when all this young talent does finally put it together the Marlins will be an excellent team again. The questions are where it will happen and just how long will it take?

New York Mets: The Mets? What to say about the Mets? I already talked about Lima time and the problems that will follow so I'll leave it at that. The Mets have a team ERA of 3.26. To perfectly honest I don't expect that to hold up. Tom Glavine has been unbelievable so far this season putting up a line of 4-2 with an ERA of 1.94 with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 41:14. Let's put things in perspective here. Glavine is 40 years old. The last time Glavine had an ERA below 3.00 was 2002. I don't think he can keep this up. I think he'll have a good season but I don't see him winning the Cy Young. Which brings me to Pedro. Pedro is 5-0 with an ERA of 2.72 with an ERA of 2.72 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 42:12. The problem here is Pedro's toe. It's been a problem since his days in Boston and it's not going away. Pedro spends time on the DL every year and this year I think he'll spend more time on the DL then usual meaning even more Lima Time. Meanwhile Billy Wagner has put up some good numbers going 2-0 with 7 saves and an ERA of 2.12. But his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 19:8 not great. And he's already blown three saves. He'll put up his usual numbers unless he can't adjust to New York. Stay tuned. Brian Bannister is a disaster waiting to happen despite his his 2.89 ERA. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 14:17 is going to derail him quickly. Better to put Aaron Heilman into the rotation then wait for this blow up on you. On the offensive side of the ball Jose Reyes has an OBP of .345. But facts are facts. His career OBP is .307. If he can keep this up it's OK to keep him in the lead-off spot if he can't then the Mets are wasting time batting him at the top of the line-up. Paul Lo Duca is doing his normal early season hitting well before second half collapse. Carlos Delegado is hammering the ball as was expected to the tune of .296/.397/.617. Xavier Nady has been a revelation since coming over from the Padres in the Mike Cameron trade hitting .296/.347/.556 with seven homers. Carlos Beltran has hit the way the Mets expected him to when they signed him .273/.432/.636 with seven home runs. But his balky hamstring concerns have some people wondering. There's a term called "Regression to the Mean" which means that players who aren't rookies will play closer to their career norms then will break out and produce a great spike in their careers after 2000 at-bats. Take Beltran for example. When was the last time he had an OBP over .400 for a full season? Answer: Never. When was the last time he had slugging percentage over .550? Answer: Never. Everything is going well for the Mets right now. Luck will be what determines if it continues.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies have been on a role as of late as having their last nine games before getting shellacked by the Mets on Wednesday. The Phillies are a better team than I'm giving them credit for being. Their pitching with exceptions of Jon Lieber, Ryan Madson and Gavin Floyd has actually been pretty decent. The arrival of Cole Hamels for Friday's start should be an improvement. Tom Gordon has been dominant as their closer going 2-1 with an ERA of 1.72 10 saves and 24 strikeouts. The Phillies offense is as deep as any teams in baseball. Chase Utley has emerged as a star hitting .317/.381/.
Washington Nationals